Abdelkader Sahed

Work place: Department of Economics, The University Center in Maghnia, Algeria

E-mail: sahed14@yahoo.fr

Website:

Research Interests: Statistics, Probability

Biography

Dr. Abdelkader Sahed works at the University Center in Maghnia as a Lecturer, Department of Economic Sciences, Faculty of Economics, Management and Commerce. He has Masters and PhD both obtained at the University of Tlemcen. His research area includes Statistics and Probability Theories and econometrics.

Author Articles
Forecasting Natural Gas Prices Using Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network

By Abdelkader Sahed Mohammed Mekidiche Hacen Kahoui

DOI: https://doi.org/10.5815/ijmsc.2020.05.04, Pub. Date: 8 Oct. 2020

When forecasting time series, It was found that simple linear time series models usually leave facets of economic and financial unknown in the forecasting time series due to linearity behavior, which remains the focus of empirical and applied study. The study suggested the Nonlinear Autoregressive Neural Network model and a comparison was made using the ARIMA model for forecasting natural gas prices, as obtained from the analysis, NAR models were better than the completed ARIMA model, measured against three performance indicators. The decision criterion for the selection of the best suited model depends on MSE, RMSE and R2. From the results of the criterion it has found that both the models are providing almost closed results but NAR is the best suited model for the forecasting of natural gas prices.

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